AI by turnaround operators
Inflection · RXI
Broken, but fixable. Know before the market.
An AI engine built by turnaround operators and calibrated inside live Octobiz mandates. Inflection identifies the companies that are likely to fail. RXI shows which of them can be saved and how.
The two engines
Everyone predicts defaults. RXI predicts fixability.
Credit-risk tools tell you whether a company will default. Inflection · RXI tells you what kind of distress it is in and whether it can be turned around.
Stage 1 · Inflection
Distress typology
Which companies are likely to fail, what kind of distress they are in and how soon it becomes critical.
LiquidityOperationalLeverageStrategicCovenant
Stage 2 · RXI
Recoverability
Which of these companies can be fixed, which route fits and how likely a turnaround is to succeed.
- Recoverability index from 0 to 100
- Probability of a successful turnaround
- Recovery type of the company
Recovery types
The recovery type answers the first question: Can this company be fixed, and how?
RXI places every distressed company in one of four recovery types. The type answers the first question in any workout: Is this company worth saving, and by whom?
- Balance-sheet-fixable: A good business with a broken balance sheet. A case for credit and fulcrum funds.
- Operational turnaround: A healthy balance sheet with a broken business. A case for a turnaround operator.
- Liquidation bias: Both are broken. Rarely fixable.
- Not distressed: Not a target.
Current status
Stage 1 is live. Stage 2 is in calibration.
Stage 1 · Inflection
Working prototype
Inflection already scores companies on public data.
Stage 2 · RXI
Trained, in calibration
The model and method are in place and are being calibrated on real restructuring cases.
Built by operators
Live mandates
Octobiz turnaround mandates feed real cases and senior judgment into the recovery types.
Interested in Inflection · RXI?
We share more details in a personal conversation under NDA.
Inflection · RXI is in development. Outputs shown are illustrative. This page is not an offer of securities or investment advice.