An AI recoverability scan is a structured assessment of whether a company in financial or operational distress can realistically be turned around, which recovery route fits and how much time is left. It differs from a credit-risk score in one decisive respect: A default model tells you how likely a company is to fail. A recoverability scan tells you whether it is worth saving, and how. At Octobiz the scan is run by RXI™, our own AI engine, and reviewed by a partner. The result arrives within 3 working days.
Why the first question in a workout is not “will it default?”
Every bank, every fund and every board has a view on default probability. Rating models, early-warning systems and covenant tests all answer the same question. What they do not answer is the question that decides what happens next: Is this a good business with a broken balance sheet, a healthy balance sheet with a broken business, or both broken? The answer determines who should lead the case, what the plan must contain and whether a plan makes sense at all.
That distinction is the core of the scan. We call it the recovery type.
The four recovery types
- Balance-sheet-fixable: A good business with a broken balance sheet. Margins hold, customers stay, but debt, interest or maturities no longer fit. A case for refinancing, credit funds and a structured lender process.
- Operational turnaround: A healthy balance sheet with a broken business. Margins erode, contracts lose money, working capital drifts. A case for a turnaround operator and a rescue plan with hard measures.
- Liquidation bias: Both are broken. Rarely fixable. An honest scan says so, early, and saves everyone the cost of a plan that would not have worked.
- Not distressed: Pressure, but no crisis. Usually a case for performance improvement rather than a turnaround.
How the AI scan works
RXI™ has two engines. Engine 1, the typology, reads three years of financial statements, the current management accounts, open item lists, the bank overview and the cash position, and sorts the company into one of five distress types: Liquidity, operational, leverage, strategic or covenant. Engine 2, the recoverability engine, scores how likely a turnaround is to succeed, from 0 to 100, estimates the liquidity runway and ranks the five red flags with the largest cash impact.
What makes this different from a spreadsheet model is speed and breadth. The data preparation that used to take an analyst a week takes hours. Peer benchmarks, margin bridges and working capital analysis run in parallel. The partner who reviews the result spends the day on judgment, not on reconciling ledgers.
What the scan can tell you
- The distress type, and whether it is one type or a combination.
- A recoverability index with the reasoning behind it, not a black box number.
- An estimated liquidity runway in weeks.
- The five red flags that matter, each with a root-cause hypothesis.
- A go or no-go recommendation for a rescue plan, including the right package size.
What the scan cannot tell you
It is a triage, not a plan. It does not contain measures, owners and dates, and it does not replace a 13-week liquidity plan built with the management team. It also does not replace the judgment of the people who will have to deliver the turnaround. That is why every RXI™ result is reviewed and signed by a partner before it reaches the client, and why the scan is followed by a results call of up to 60 minutes.
Who uses it
Owners and CEOs who want an honest outside view before committing to a full mandate. Lenders and workout teams who need an independent triage of a borrower. Private equity firms, family offices and restructuring lawyers who want to know whether a rescue plan is worth commissioning. For all of them the economics are the same: €7,500 flat, three working days, fully credited toward a rescue plan if they continue.
Frequently asked questions
How long does an AI recoverability scan take?
Octobiz delivers the RXI™ scan within 3 working days of payment and complete data. The AI diagnostics run in hours; most of the time goes into data preparation and partner review.
Is the result produced by AI alone?
No. RXI™ prepares, types and scores. A partner reviews every number against the questionnaire, writes the go or no-go memo and explains it in a call. Client data is never used to train AI models.
What does it cost?
A flat fee of €7,500, payable in advance and fully credited toward a Stage 1 rapid rescue plan.
